An Inflationary Black Swan Is Haunting the Fed

Read more on this subject: Inflation
News Story Source:, By David Stockman
There are several reasons behind this bout of high inflation. First, the economy is strong and employers have been adding more than 400,000 jobs for 11 straight months.


In July 2019 the non-farm jobs count (purple line) of 150.921 million was virtually identical to the March 2022 figure of 150.925 million. To be exact, we are talking about a 4,000 jobs difference in an economy with a potential work force of more than 200 million.

Nevertheless, despite a 4.2 million increase in the population since then, which has made the labor market slightly looser, the Y/Y inflation rate in March 2022 of 8.55%was 4.7 times higher than the rate of 1.82% back then.

Self-evidently, the US economy isn't strong, while the domestic job situation – which has just barely returned to the July 2019 status quo ante – has had precious little impact on the accelerating inflation rates to date. Instead, the gale force of inflation is largely imported, owing to soaring, globally
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